Daily Currency Analysis

EUR/USD

The dollar was generally weaker in Asian trading on Monday as markets continued to analyse last week’s payroll data which raised fresh doubts over the US economy.

The dollar was also undermined by the weekend G7 meetings where there was no additional support for the US currency. European policy makers continued to voice their support for a strong dollar in comments on Monday with ECB President Trichet stating that there was no need for the dollar to weaken against the Euro. Markets will want a more decisive stance in favour of a US currency, especially from the US administration, before making any decisive shift in sentiment towards the US currency.

The Euro-zone Sentix improved to -12.6 for October from -14.6 the previous month which pushed the index to a two-year high, although it was again slightly weaker than expected. There will be further fears that any recovery in GDP growth will falter quickly given the underlying weakness in consumer spending. There was also some fresh over the situation in Latvia which is liable to unsettle the Euro to some extent. There will also be caution ahead of the ECB policy meeting on Thursday even though an unchanged policy looks likely.

The US ISM index for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 50.9 from 48.4 the previous month and this was the strongest reading for over 12 months, although there was still evidence of underlying vulnerability. Although risk appetite staged a cautious recovery following the US data, there was still an underlying mood of uncertainty with notable volatility in the commodity markets.

The dollar edged weaker following the data as underlying sentiment remained negative with the Euro pushing back to test dollar support above 1.4650.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Yen

Domestic comments on the yen will remain a key focus in the near term. Over the weekend, Finance Minister Fujii warned that Japan could intervene if currency moves were excessive. The remarks will reinforce speculation that the government will not tolerate rapid yen gains from current levels given fears over the economy’s health. Following the comments, the dollar was able to consolidate above 89.50 against the yen in Asia on Monday despite underlying vulnerability.

The US currency was again unable to make a serious attempt at pushing above the 90 level as it remained generally on the defensive and the yen was probing dollar support levels close to 89.50 later in the US session with narrow yen ranges.

Sterling

Sterling pushed above the 1.60 level against the US dollar in early Europe on Monday, but again hit tough resistance above this level. The services-sector PMI index was stronger than expected with a move to a two-year high of 55.3 for September from 54.1 which will should underpin confidence towards the economy to some extent.

Nevertheless, overall sentiment towards the currency remains fragile and there will be unease that the currency failed to take advantage of a rally in equity markets.

There will also be caution ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting. Markets will be expecting the central bank to hold policy steady, but there will still be a reluctance to hold long Sterling positions ahead of the meeting.

As Sterling confidence wilted it remained trapped below 1.60 against the dollar and also dipped to re-test support close to 0.92 against the Euro later in the US session.

Swiss franc

The dollar failed to make any impression on the franc during Monday and there was a renewed decline to near 1.03 later in the US session. The Euro was unable to make any headway against the franc for much of the day, but did edge higher to 1.5125 in New York

The Swiss currency is still proving resilient in global markets even when risk appetite is firm and there appears a continuing reluctance to sell the franc. The recent industrial survey evidence will continue to provide some support and ease fears over the competitive position.

The National Bank policy actions will remain an important focus, especially if the Euro re-tests support below the 1.51 region.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Australian dollar

There were further Australian dollar gains on Monday as the US unit remained on the defensive with a high near 0.8750. Commodity prices also looked to rally after recent losses. Overall Australian dollar confidence is liable to remain firm in the near term with a close focus on the Reserve Bank interest rate decision due on Tuesday.

Although a rate increase looks unlikely, the Australian currency will tend to remain firm if there are hints over interest rate increases by the central bank. There are still important vulnerabilities surrounding the global economy which will pose a potential threat to the Australian currency. A weaker US trend was a key factor in New York and the Australian dollar rallied to highs above 0.8780.

Earn Money Automatically With Forex Trading

by Pete Sandras

The market of Forex currency trading has one of the biggest potentials for people to make money from it. As a result many people are currently interested in Forex trading and there are all sorts of information on the internet and in books and programs to learn about it.

While all this information is essential to your understanding of the market and how you can personally achieve wealth through it, you should keep certain strategies and tips in mind that overall summarize any information you will learn about this new business opportunity. You should invest a lot of time and energy studying in addition to reading articles like this one.

I would argue that the only proper way to do forex trading would be to first wait for the economy to stabilize, as the global economy right now is in turmoil and countries can suddenly increase or decrease their wealth which completely changes the Forex market at the time. Also be careful to keep your life in order. Any form of trading is a risky venture. It ALWAYS involves a risk of losing money, so keep that in mind when you invest, that you should never put your job or house on the line for something like this.

1. Choose a method of learning, or branch out. What I mean is, go to a bookstore, search online, buy an automated robot, whatever you choose to do to get started, you must go at it with the intention of spending hours of studying and learning from previous traders. Even when you get an automated forex software program you can’t just sit there and expect it to do everything for you, you must do your research and carefully set it up. There are tons of options in even the most automated programs you must look into and carefully choose from.

2. Manage your life before you manage your forex trading. Don’t be rash and believe in all of those get rich quick schemes, they are only playing off of your inability to make calm, calculated decisions when you’re infatuated with the idea of making money quickly. You need to have a plan laid out before you spend any money, you need a stable income to pay your rent, and DO NOT expect to suddenly make as much money as they advertise, give it at least 6 months before you can turn a profit.

3. Go slowly, walk, do not run. If you go all out chances are you’ll make some simple mistake that all beginners do and ruin your chances of slowly building a fortune, or you will quickly get discouraged and stop trading all together.

4. The market will be around for your entire lifetime, you can wait a few months before you think you know enough to trade heavily and get into higher risk trading opportunities. Remember with any new venture in life, take your time and learn from your predecessors before you run head first into things. You don’t climb mount Everest your first time hiking right? So why do you think you can trade like a pro your first few times?

About the Author:

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Forex Trading - Making High Profits Will Always Involve Risks

by Jimmie Harrison

Welcome to the wonderful world of forex trading. No, this type of trading is not about bonds or stocks. In fact, it does not even involve bonds or stocks. What you will be doing is trading currency pairs. We cannot count just how many individuals out there know that this type of trading can bring them money, but they are not sure what to do, how to go about doing it and whom to talk to. Are you in the same shoes as them? If so, kick back, grab a cup of coffee and get ready to have some high quality information revealed to you about forex trading.

The currencies that are chosen over others are chosen because they have more value and are of higher quality. Are you a newcomer to this trading world? If so, then we highly recommend you listening to what the experts have to tell you. Even if those experts tell you something that doesn’t sound like it will work, you should listen to them. Why? Because if you are a newcomer, then you may be thinking in a whole other direction. As for the experts, they have been trading for many years and know all of the tips and tricks. They are very much qualified to give out advice.

There are people in India, Nigeria, United States, Canada, United Kingdom and other places throughout the world that are participating in this trading program.

We tell you, there are so many benefits with forex trading and many companies, industries and individuals are taking advantage of it. We believe you should get out there and take advantage of it as well.

As you are starting out, you are going to find many legitimate companies. Those companies are there to take you by the hand and help you our with your adventures. They will be willing to answer any questions that you may have and from time to time will give you advice. Take note that there is no such thing as getting high profits and minimal risk.

It just goes without saying that the more profits you want to bring in, the higher your risks are going to be. We know, this is one of the sayings that chase many individuals off and if you do not feel like you have money that you are willing to put on the line, then you may want to back out of it.

However, for all of you risk takers out there, you just might get lucky. However, don’t let that luck get caught up in between greed as greed can really ruin an individual.

When it comes to that trading company, you should always make sure you check the background of them. If you run across a company that does not allow information about their history or background to be found, then that should be a red flag to you.

Getting involved in forex trading is probably one of the best decisions you have made in a long time. However, when you go in this field, you will need to have your mind on straight. You cannot jump in expecting to get a lot of money, because this is only going to mess you up. We wish you luck as you make you are trading currencies and don’t forget to do your homework.

About the Author:

Then, you must decide what the size of the account will be. Automated Trading Software Well, right now, we can tell you that you are not alone in this situation. In conclusion, why not try your luck on the FOREX?

U.S. Unemployment Claims to Set the Level for the USD Today

The U.S. Unemployment Claims is the primary publication today that is set to determine the level of the USD when it is released at 12:30 GMT. The other main releases that are set to dominate forex trading, especially for currencies such as the Dollar and EUR is the publication of the Services PMI for Britain at 08:30 GMT, the EUR Minimum Bid Rate at 11:45 from the Euro-Zone, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. at 14:00 GMT. What are you waiting for traders! Open your positions in the USD, EUR, GBP, and AUD now.



USD - USD Setback Caused by Market Uncertainty

The US Dollar dropped slightly yesterday as equity markets began to slow the pace of their recovery. Erasing part of Tuesday's gains, the EUR/USD retraced itself back towards 1.4300 at the opening of US markets as stocks slowly recovered, and the EUR followed suit against the greenback. Similar behavior was experienced against the British Pound as well, with a price reaching towards 1.6300 as of yesterday's late trading hours.

Economic recovery does not appear to be improving at the speed many investors were hoping for, and currencies appear to be tracing the movement of stocks as a result. While recovery floats between positive and negative economic data, risk appetite may be suffering as a result; hence the surge in the value of the JPY. One thing is certain, the economic news expected for today and tomorrow will no doubt generate an intense level of trading volume and volatility as investors try to price in the new growth forecasts for Europe and unemployment levels for the United States.

For today, traders need to be watching 3 currencies: the AUD, EUR, and USD. Australia released its trade balance figures this morning, which showed a deeper contraction than was expected, putting downward pressure on the Aussie. The European Central Bank will release its decision on short-term interest rates, which always creates volatility. Also, the US is going to give a glimpse into tomorrow's NFP report with today's Unemployment Claims figures. These will be the more exciting news days for trading that an investor can get. Make sure you're in the market today!

EUR - Euro-Zone Interest Rate Decision Today at 11:45 GMT

While rallying against the USD yesterday, the EUR faced a moderate setback versus the British Pound and Yen. Climbing towards 1.4300 against the USD, the EUR dropped to as low as 0.8750 versus the Pound Sterling and 131.30 compared to the Yen.

The price behavior of the EUR these past few days has been to mimic the movement of stocks, since most economic data has failed to provide a clear signal about market direction. Since global stocks are inching their way towards positive growth, the EUR also inched its way up against its primary rival. However, the lack of optimism meant that the safe-haven JPY continued to gain momentum against all of its rivals.

For today, EUR traders have an important economic event to be on the lookout for. The European Central Bank (ECB) is going to announce its decision regarding its Minimum Bid Rate (short-term interest rates for the region), and could also potentially give hints about its economic growth forecasts for the next 6 months. Any indication of a rate increase in the next half-year could spell heavy optimism for the EUR and traders would be foolish to miss out on this event.

JPY - Yen Continues to Gain from Risk Aversion

Sitting on top of a mountain of bullish growth, the Japanese Yen has been on the receiving end of much optimism lately, or should we say, a lack of optimism. The uncertainty in the market lately has pushed many investors away from even the modestly risky currencies and into the safety of the Yen, which helps explain its recent strength.

Whether or not this momentum can carry itself into the near future, however, may be decided by the news events today and tomorrow from Europe and the United States. The ECB will announce its rate decisions today, as well as any updates about economic outlook. This decision always carries a strong impact and may see the EUR/JPY head into an upward correction directly after its release if the ECB brings good news. American employment data today and tomorrow may also help reverse the recent trend of the USD/JPY. Traders beware, today is going to be a bumpy ride!

Crude Oil - Commodities Spike, but Crude Oil Remains Flat

Unlike yesterday's Gold prices, Crude Oil failed to see any bullish growth following the opening of the US markets at 12:30 GMT. Once the New York markets opened, the USD faced a modest downturn against the EUR while stocks gained slightly. As a result, the price of precious metals, such as Gold and Silver, spiked drastically while the price for a barrel of Crude Oil remained relatively flat at $68.

With so much news affecting the stock market and forex, many traders tend to overlook the benefits of commodity trading. Crude Oil tends to be an investment with a lot of potential as it moves in large wave trends with fewer volatile spikes, making it one of the safer investments for a portfolio looking for a hedge against inflation, or away from the volatility of many currencies. Today's and tomorrow's news releases about European interest rates and American employment data are expected to create a heavy level of volume and volatility, meaning most commodities will experience something similar. Don't miss out on these opportunities if you're an active forex trader.

Article Source - U.S. Unemployment Claims to Set the Level for the USD Today