USD - USD Setback Caused by Market Uncertainty
The US Dollar dropped slightly yesterday as equity markets began to slow the pace of their recovery. Erasing part of Tuesday's gains, the EUR/USD retraced itself back towards 1.4300 at the opening of US markets as stocks slowly recovered, and the EUR followed suit against the greenback. Similar behavior was experienced against the British Pound as well, with a price reaching towards 1.6300 as of yesterday's late trading hours.
Economic recovery does not appear to be improving at the speed many investors were hoping for, and currencies appear to be tracing the movement of stocks as a result. While recovery floats between positive and negative economic data, risk appetite may be suffering as a result; hence the surge in the value of the JPY. One thing is certain, the economic news expected for today and tomorrow will no doubt generate an intense level of trading volume and volatility as investors try to price in the new growth forecasts for Europe and unemployment levels for the United States.
For today, traders need to be watching 3 currencies: the AUD, EUR, and USD. Australia released its trade balance figures this morning, which showed a deeper contraction than was expected, putting downward pressure on the Aussie. The European Central Bank will release its decision on short-term interest rates, which always creates volatility. Also, the US is going to give a glimpse into tomorrow's NFP report with today's Unemployment Claims figures. These will be the more exciting news days for trading that an investor can get. Make sure you're in the market today!
EUR - Euro-Zone Interest Rate Decision Today at 11:45 GMT
While rallying against the USD yesterday, the EUR faced a moderate setback versus the British Pound and Yen. Climbing towards 1.4300 against the USD, the EUR dropped to as low as 0.8750 versus the Pound Sterling and 131.30 compared to the Yen.
The price behavior of the EUR these past few days has been to mimic the movement of stocks, since most economic data has failed to provide a clear signal about market direction. Since global stocks are inching their way towards positive growth, the EUR also inched its way up against its primary rival. However, the lack of optimism meant that the safe-haven JPY continued to gain momentum against all of its rivals.
For today, EUR traders have an important economic event to be on the lookout for. The European Central Bank (ECB) is going to announce its decision regarding its Minimum Bid Rate (short-term interest rates for the region), and could also potentially give hints about its economic growth forecasts for the next 6 months. Any indication of a rate increase in the next half-year could spell heavy optimism for the EUR and traders would be foolish to miss out on this event.
JPY - Yen Continues to Gain from Risk Aversion
Sitting on top of a mountain of bullish growth, the Japanese Yen has been on the receiving end of much optimism lately, or should we say, a lack of optimism. The uncertainty in the market lately has pushed many investors away from even the modestly risky currencies and into the safety of the Yen, which helps explain its recent strength.
Whether or not this momentum can carry itself into the near future, however, may be decided by the news events today and tomorrow from Europe and the United States. The ECB will announce its rate decisions today, as well as any updates about economic outlook. This decision always carries a strong impact and may see the EUR/JPY head into an upward correction directly after its release if the ECB brings good news. American employment data today and tomorrow may also help reverse the recent trend of the USD/JPY. Traders beware, today is going to be a bumpy ride!
Crude Oil - Commodities Spike, but Crude Oil Remains Flat
Unlike yesterday's Gold prices, Crude Oil failed to see any bullish growth following the opening of the US markets at 12:30 GMT. Once the New York markets opened, the USD faced a modest downturn against the EUR while stocks gained slightly. As a result, the price of precious metals, such as Gold and Silver, spiked drastically while the price for a barrel of Crude Oil remained relatively flat at $68.
With so much news affecting the stock market and forex, many traders tend to overlook the benefits of commodity trading. Crude Oil tends to be an investment with a lot of potential as it moves in large wave trends with fewer volatile spikes, making it one of the safer investments for a portfolio looking for a hedge against inflation, or away from the volatility of many currencies. Today's and tomorrow's news releases about European interest rates and American employment data are expected to create a heavy level of volume and volatility, meaning most commodities will experience something similar. Don't miss out on these opportunities if you're an active forex trader.
Article Source - U.S. Unemployment Claims to Set the Level for the USD Today
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